Malaysian plane missing

Hi, Gary.

 
Yes, possible.  Anything is possible.  
 
The actual likelihood that some event – such as this –  happened 
is the arithmetic product of the possibility and the probability.
 
The possibility that this is a terrorist or similar act is likely 90-100%.
 
The probability that it is a terrorist or similar act is likely 25 – 50% 
(my WAG)* and rising.
 
The actual likelihood it was a terrorist or similar occurrence is
therefore:  0.95 x 0.375 = 35.625.  But the use of five significant
figures in such a calculation is totally unjustified.  Let’s say there
is maybe a 1/3 likelihood.
 
You can use your own numbers and come to your own conclusion.
 
The probability that it will happen to your daughter’s flight is
likely <<1%, owing to endless confounding factors, all of them
pointing to “no”.
 
Cheers,
 
F.
 
* WAG = Wild-Assed Guess.
 
 
 

On 2014-03-14, at 10:04 AM, Gary Reid wrote:

?????  Possible?????

My daughter is on a plane from Shanghai to London as I write this!!!!!!

——– Original Message ——–

Subject: Fwd: FW: TOM HENEGHAN EXPLOSIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEFINGS
Date: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 07:41:01 -0500
From: cecil mcray <nonelbc@gmail.com>
To: None Left Behind Corp <nonelbc@gmail.com>

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